***French Election Predictions***

[Ranger2]

On April 23, the French will go to the polls to determine their new president. If no candidate receives a majority, there will be a runoff on May 7.

So I'd like to get your opinions. Who will win, and who will survive to run in the runoff election (if there is one)?

The candidates are as follows:

-Benoit Hamon, Socialist Party. Running as a successor to the unpopular Francois Hollande.
-Francois Fillon, Republican Party. Similar views as Nicolas Sarkozy.
-Marine le Pen, National Front. A far-right candidate who wants to take France out of the Eurozone and NATO, and nix immigration.
-Emmanuel Macron, En Marche. A centrist, third-way candidate.

It's a guess, but I believe if there is a runoff, Marine le Pen will win. The right wing is too far spread and diverse, and there is genuine fear in France due to terrorist attacks. She may win for the same reasons Trump did. I hope I'm wrong, but this past year has upended all conventional wisdom.

[EdyKel]

I'm rooting for Emmanuel Macron. I think he has a chance. But it will most likely be a close race.

[DamnedByFate]

At 4/14/17 10:24 PM, Ranger2 wrote: It's a guess, but I believe if there is a runoff, Marine le Pen will win

I think if there is a runoff, Le Pen will lose. The sane right-wing choice would be Fillon, but he won't make it due to that corruption scandal. Le Pen is so far off that I can really see everyone else uniting against her.

Hamon is hardly ever even reported on (which really frustrates me as a far left leaning person), so I'll make an educated guess and say it'll be Macron in the end.

[Jackho]

After Brexit and Trump I'm totally placing my bets on Le Pen. Though I could see the US election scaring enough people into actually voting and rallying against her.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

At 4/18/17 03:05 PM, Jackho wrote: After Brexit and Trump I'm totally placing my bets on Le Pen. Though I could see the US election scaring enough people into actually voting and rallying against her.

with some of the recent terror attacks in europe on top of it too. I would give Le Pen a strong MAYBE. but theres going to be a strong push to the right but not that far.

[Moblin]

Yup, I'm scared. Le Pen got a lot of votes last elections and now with the fear of Immigration and terrorism haunting the people of France she'll have an even bigger chance of winning. So I kinda expect her to be a nominee, though her becoming a nominee may push more people to vote so everything can happen I guess.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

The odds for the current five frontrunners for French President are:
Emmanual Macron, Independent: Evens
Marine Le Pen, Front National: 3/1
François Fillon, Les Republicains: 3/1
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Unsubmissive France: 7/1
Benoît Hamon, Socialists: 200/1

I don't know what the evens mean but this looks interesting.

[ChazDude]

At 4/18/17 03:05 PM, Jackho wrote: I could see the US election scaring enough people into actually voting and rallying against her.

That is pretty much what happened in Austria.

[Ranger2]

So a shooting occurred in Paris today, committed by two men whom ISIS has claimed as their own.

A spree of attacks in Paris can only tilt the scales more in Le Pen's favor. Although as Chazdude said, Austrian moderates won over the far-right in their election, their country has not faced the level of attacks France has--possibly because it's not a member of NATO.

This can't be good.

[DamnedByFate]

At 4/20/17 10:16 PM, Ranger2 wrote: So a shooting occurred in Paris today, committed by two men whom ISIS has claimed as their own.

My cynical self can't let go of the suspicion that this was a Le Pen supporter trying to sway the election in her favour.

[Moblin]

At 4/21/17 11:43 AM, SumQuodEris wrote:

At 4/21/17 10:34 AM, DamnedByFate wrote:

At 4/20/17 10:16 PM, Ranger2 wrote: So a shooting occurred in Paris today, committed by two men whom ISIS has claimed as their own.

My cynical self can't let go of the suspicion that this was a Le Pen supporter trying to sway the election in her favour.

'Karim Cheurfi'?

Yeah it seems pretty unlikely that an Algerian named Karim Cheufri supports Le Pen, but you never know. Though I think Cheufri was just another radicalized muslim brainwashed to fuck shit up without any particular motives.

[DamnedByFate]

At 4/21/17 11:43 AM, SumQuodEris wrote: 'Karim Cheurfi'?

"Damn Turks." - a co-worker of my mother's, referring to his parents. Anything is possible.

[SatanBrain]

If Filon passes first round, he'll win the presidency. If not, we shall see La Pen triumphant.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

I had to look but apparently Paris is 6 hours ahead of me. fucking timezones man.

anyways French election LIVE: 'I just voted Le Pen for a laugh, people need a scare'

[Tony-DarkGrave]

they're starting the exit polls

[Tony-DarkGrave]

At 4/23/17 11:40 AM, MrPerciePercy wrote: It probably just be some obscure frenchman we can't remember, it always is.

sacre bleu!

[DamnedByFate]

At 4/23/17 11:40 AM, MrPerciePercy wrote: It probably just be some obscure frenchman we can't remember, it always is.

I say, the bloody French!

[Tony-DarkGrave]

if Le Penn wins this I wonder what that bitch Merkel will say.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

looks like its going to be a few point spread somewhere between 2-4%

[Tony-DarkGrave]

so we have to wait till the beginning of May? and the UK's isn't till June. FUUUUUCK.

[ChazDude]

At 4/23/17 02:25 PM, MrPerciePercy wrote: I always knew macaroni was going to win

I sometimes picture Mr. Trump calling him that.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

At 4/23/17 03:43 PM, ChazDude wrote:

At 4/23/17 02:25 PM, MrPerciePercy wrote: I always knew macaroni was going to win

I sometimes picture Mr. Trump calling him that.

you guys are idiots just, think Mac & Cheeto and Putin Butter!

my puns are on point.

[aviewaskewed]

At 4/23/17 05:07 PM, SolidPantsSnake wrote: La Pen is no Trump even if people are trying to make it seem that way. With the other candidates backing macron I don't see her winning. That's one hell of an uphill battle.

Also the American system is radically different from anybody elses. Trump's victory was helped tremendously by these differences. I'm no expert on French politics, but I'm thinking as some have written what we are seeing is more of a rejection of traditional political parties vs. a shift to the right. Also we're seeing that people tend to be sick of bad, scandal ridden establishment candidates. Le Pen seems too radical to win, but even if she does, from what I'm reading she'd largely be a figure head with no real governmental help underneath (Macron looks like he'd have it even worse).

[DamnedByFate]

At 4/23/17 03:20 PM, SumQuodEris wrote: Fillon has endorsed Macron, and the others (Mélenchon and Hamon) will do or have done likewise. It'll be Le Pen against everyone else in the final round. Honestly, barring major upheaval I don't think she can get more than 40% in the final vote.

And I was right.

But I thought the same about Trump so we'll see.

Let's hope I'm right again in thinking that the French are a saner people overall than the Americans.

[aviewaskewed]

At 4/24/17 04:59 AM, SumQuodEris wrote: That's probably true - that said, although Le Pen may end up with more representatives in parliament than Macron, all the other parties would be hostile to a Le Pen presidency, whereas Macron may be able to strike deals with the main centre-left and centre-right parties.

That's a good point. He does come off from my reading as somebody who isn't a hardliner, willing to reach across, up down, all around, whatever it's going to take to get things done. Not that he doesn't have his beliefs, just that it's not the kind of ideological "purity" and rigidity Americans are demanding from elected officials these days.

[pinkertondojo]

In all likelyhood a narrow victory for Macron. A La Pen win would be an upset it is plausible but it's a stretch.
Styxhexxenhammer on youtube is a good reference for politics and I recommend following him.

60-75% chance win for Macron which is a sure thing. A narrow victory probably within 5 percent of each other however.

Dieu et mon droit

[DamnedByFate]

At 4/24/17 11:54 AM, SumQuodEris wrote: We did both lose points by betting on Fillon to win back in January. And considering how well he did, we probably would have been all set were it not for the corruption scandal that engulfed him.

I made my prediction before the corruption scandal emerged, and I thought it would be a dickish move to officially revise it afterwards. Anyway, my "I was right" comment was referring to everyone else uniting against Le Pen.

[Tony-DarkGrave]

At 4/24/17 01:16 PM, DamnedByFate wrote: I made my prediction before the corruption scandal emerged, and I thought it would be a dickish move to officially revise it afterwards. Anyway, my "I was right" comment was referring to everyone else uniting against Le Pen.

I wouldn't say revise, maybe slightly amended would be better.

[TaintedLogic]

Seems like Macron has the edge based on my sources, but I don't think his supporters should get too comfortable yet. This past year has been a good one for populist candidates, after all.

Personally, I'm pulling for Macron. Much less right-wing extremist rhetoric coming out of his mouth than Le Pen's.

[DaisyMarino]

At 4/23/17 03:20 PM, SumQuodEris wrote:

At 4/23/17 03:15 PM, SolidPantsSnake wrote: Well it's going to be La pen vs Macron in round 2. La Pen came in second by only 1% in the first round. She'll have to win over the moderates to win round 2.

Fillon has endorsed Macron, and the others (Mélenchon and Hamon) will do or have done likewise. It'll be Le Pen against everyone else in the final round. Honestly, barring major upheaval I don't think she can get more than 40% in the final vote. But I thought the same about Trump so we'll see.

The way I can see it, it seems everyone is rooting for Macron. But let see in the final round on May 7. France is not ready for a woman as a leader, just adding my $2 cents here.